NOTHING like last winter is expected

Except for the middle of August, it seems like this summer was a mild one in Southern California, following a better than average winter rainfall. As noted here, one beneficiary was Lake Elsinore, which came up five vertical feet from December to March, though it has lost half that to evaporation since.

But expecting another decent, even “normal” winter of rainfall does not look promising.

The latest from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Nino is out and La Nina is in. And the latter is responsible for the great shift in sea temperatures that manifest themselves around the globe in more or less rainfall.

The Sept. 9 “discussion” (click here) is long and technical, but the the short of it says the impacts of La Nina “include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and below-average precipitation in the Southwest….”

How bad (or how mild) these conditions will be is still up in the air, but NOAA is playing it safe and calling for a moderate conditions, but will be making monthly updates as they evaluate data. All we know is the prediction is for the next three months of the winter of 2010-11.

What does it mean? For those reservoirs that normally receive run-off, expect they will likely be clearer for the coming winter/spring and that may affect your angling approach. How cold a dry winter might be could also have an effect on shad die-offs in some reservoirs, which may also alter your approach. Perhaps more spooning if it’s very cold and less if the temperatures or more moderate.

Regardless, you may want to keep such things in mind as you contemplate tackle or equipment purchases once the fall locks down.