CLEAR WATER expected?

We all know that global climate predictions make the most sense when they actually come to fruition, however, the current measurements around the world are real. Now it’s up to NOAA and its fellows to figure out what we are likely to encounter over the next 12 months.

Thus, the latest information and maps (if you’re up to studying) suggest the likelihood of roughly normal precipitation for much of California this winter, with again, higher expectations in the Pacific Northwest. The data of most interest to me, however, comes in the form of the shorter term, three month forecasts that give us a sense of what might be coming.

Unlike rainfall tabulations that stretch back to the turn of the 20th Century, and produce such terminology as “100 year” rainfall levels, the new maps and projections are based on only the last 30 years. Thus, today’s above average, equal to or below average projections refer to observations made over that span.

Since SoCal is looking at mostly equal to normal conditions, (click here) that tells me, if you liked what you encountered in the 2010-11 season, then look for more of the same next winter and spring. Certainly, I would like to order up another “comfortable” early summer if I could.

And while we know the actual conditions will trump predictions, without much rain/runoff it sounds like 2012 might be a sight-fishing delight.