Is it just me or did the 10-day forecast call for some rain this past Tuesday/Wednesday? Maybe I just read it wrong, but my raingear got such workout going from the closet to the truck and back to the closet that I think the warranty ran out. But maybe it shows the true long-rang forecasters have the La Nina conditions down this year. They have been calling for a moderate year and that’s what it looks like.

The latest ENSO La Nina Advisory, Feb. 9, concludes: “La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012,” noting  “A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

Looking at all the data (only a tiny bit which makes sense to me) the report says, “Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña.” To the forecasters that means they, “…expect La Niña impacts to continue even as the episode weakens.,” specifically calling for, “…drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S.”

If you’re feeling scholarly, you can look at the whole report (click here).

 




5 Responses to “Long range forecasts say “dry” will prevail”


I’m on your trick GK! Every time you write something like this it rains!! It’s the Indian rain dance of fishermen, just have GK write how it won’t rain anytime soon. Bet it works again.

I hope you’re right, Guy. Though with the warm weather, the beef is already starting to move at Perris…

Looks like you need to write another dry spell article GK, we got the cold and clouds now but we need the rain now!
Perris is hog heaven right now but DVL is like an ATM machine! Lol

I think the forecasters have got it right. As for Perris, the situation is as old as reservoir bass fishing in SoCal. Take away the heavy, constant fishing pressure and a lake bounces back…

Good job GK, rain has arrived! 😉