Remember the last time it rained? Not that spritzing we had in May, I mean that trailer-floating, dock-moving, can’t pass a boat inspection kind of rain? It’s been a while and you only have to examine the water levels of non-pipeline lakes to see they don’t look so good.

So what are the prospects of a wet winter? I just took a look at the latest ENSO report and it’s a classic. Although the SST’s (sea surface temperatures) show some promise, the predictors are not ready to commit.

Taken from the report it reads: “The evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts, suggest that ENSO-neutral and El Niño are roughly equally likely during the late northern summer and fall. The …forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through [July-September], followed by an approximately 50% likelihood for El Niño during the remainder of the year.”

So that’s the call: “There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.”

In other words, now you know what to ask for, for Christmas.