Hey weather fans. After a dry one, many of us are hoping there will be swing in the overall weather patterns, giving us some precipitation here in the desert. Well, for those who study such matters, it looks like there might be a turn in that direction.

According to the latest ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) report it sounds like the possibilities are increasing for a “wetter winter.” Of course, they don’t talk about it that way, but we know what El Nino does for us in the West and particularly Southern California.

Interestingly, the computer “models” are suggesting that only “neutral” conditions are likely to persist for the rest of the year, however, as the report says, “Overall, the forecaster consensus (italics added) reflects increased chances for El Niño beginning in July-September 2012.”

So, it’s no slam dunk, but for those who live in this desert, the possibilities appear about as positive as they have been this entire year. We’ll keep an eye on things, and I’ll bring you the next El Nino forecast as soon as it breaks.



4 Responses to “Is the tide turning toward a wet winter?”

George I have only lived in SoCal for nearly 70 years and during that time period the weather cycles have never varied; every year is different!
Raised at Big Bear lake during the 40’s to mid 50’s the lake level dropped form full pool to 1/4th it’s full pool size; 72′ at the dam to 21′ in 1958 low point; long drought periods are common. The winter of 1968 the lake filled to full pool in 1 week of storms…El Nino?? It stayed dry agian until 1983 El Nino ( 1st time I heard the term)and there has been a few between then and now. So lets hope the predictions are true, as we live in a dry weather zone in SoCal.

by George Kramer

Tom, your longer view is significant, given the computer models relative to El Nino have only been around for about 25 years. I’m with you: hope all things.

by Guy Williams

It must be winter already, rain is pouring from the sky!!!

by George Kramer

Unless it’s the only monsoon we get between now and October, Guy. The winds that brought the rain closed the ramp on the Temecula lake Thursday. Too bad, level was up again and we were ready to rock. But at least I didn’t have to water the lawn here. 😉