first on the hill

FIRST it (Falls Fire) was up on the hill…

time to leave

THEN it burned down our way (gray home) …

Of course, many people had far more harrowing experiences and far greater losses than we saw last week, (we lost a pet for a night) but the latest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report suggests we’re not going to get help on either the fire danger or the raising of reservoir levels.

Specifically, here are some excerpts from the official statement from the Climate Prediction Center on August 8:

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during July 2013, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and below-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific. Collectively, …atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

on my way out

LAST SHOT while “getting out of Dodge.” Looks like we’ll get no help from El Nino.

“Most model forecasts continue to predict ENSO-neutral into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.  Similar to last month, the forecast consensus favors ENSO-neutral (60% chance or greater) through October – December 2013.”

While this doesn’t mean it won’t rain this winter, for in fact, we have a certain amount of average rainfall in the region, it rarely comes when we need it or in quantities that would be most helpful. Although reservoirs are unlikely to get the boost they need from winter precipitation, expect to hear about threats of mudslides, with so many hillsides burned off.



5 Responses to “El Nino absence leaves fire door open”

Did it get your house, George? Is the family all okay?

by George Kramer

We ended up fine. They stopped the fire about 250 yards west of us. It got into one backyard two streets up, but no structures lost.

That’s a relief! I’m glad you, your family, and your house is okay.

As of Friday 8/9/13 , Lake San Antonio is at 17% and dropping. Hawaii Mars may have a tough time if it wants to visit.

by George Kramer