The monthly Diagnostic Discussion from NOAA is out and the percentages continue to climb–now a 70 and even 80 percent likelihood–for the return of El Nino condition, typically associated with wetter winters. So, if the banks on your local reservoir look like the bottom of the Grand Canyon, the prospects for future rainfall are pretty tantalizing.

On the other hand, do you really want to expend that much emotional capital into a projection based on limited data?  The disclaimer line in the report that struck me was “…significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times.”

In other words, the tools they use to make these projections are not that reliable.

I’d love to see water back under the bridge, back in the trees or the high water ramp back in use.

But I’ve to to see it to believe it.



5 Responses to “El Nino: Would you lay your money down?”

by Rich Lingor

I would like to see a push for increased surface storage capacity. More reservoirs and bigger dams on existing reservoirs.

by George Kramer

Seems like the thing to do, Rich. But in this state with so many endangered species and so many earthquake faults, it seems to be more feasible to over charge for the little water there is, and save the cost of improving the whole water system. And frankly, I’m not sure I trust the dam builders.

by Rich Lingor

I don’t trust the dam decision makers

Too many houses being built, and not enough water storage to support it. We need more reservoirs!

There is the matter of financing these kinds of projects.

In today’s climate – pardon the pun – everyone wants but nobody wants to pay.

All things considered, California has done a pretty remarkable job of supplying water to Southern California – an irrigated desert with 22 million people and all that goes with that. Unfortunately we’ve chosen to let our infrastruture fall behind.