probable el nino

THE ODDS look good, but are they?

EDITED 1:06 p.m.–I know we continue to get ripping predictions on this winter’s rainfall–ooh, actually this winter’s El Nino condition that has in the past, brought rain. But as I look at the long range forecast for Southern California–even a couple of weeks out–and there is nothing on the board for the rest of November.

My concern is that past patterns (and we are sure putting a lot of stock in past patterns) say that typically we get a little precursor blast of precipitation, followed by a month-long lull, and then come the consistent and regular storms.

The real El Nino brings fronts marching through our area, and while no individual storm is expected to be cataclsymic, the several combined should saturate the ground and start the run-off race.

So, while we can’t dismiss the El Nino probabilities, as the chart here suggests, I’m wondering, where is the “precursor?” Will it show up in December, and if it does, will it still be followed by a lull, pushing back the haymaker storms until March? And if we have to wait until March, will those storms peter out as the projected “neutral” El Nino conditions take over global scene?

I’m uneasy. I know it won’t rain on the Bass-A-Thon this weekend, and I’ve had the roof upgraded here at home. But should I buy some new raingear, or should I hold off?

BTW: Thursday, NOAA will put out an update to their report of Nov. 12.



2 Responses to “El Nino: so where is it?”

Buy now… will help the economy

Yes, Support Johnny Morris and buy during Black Friday. 100MPH rain gear aka the official storm suit for the El Nino, is on sale. 🙂